Dodgers 2011

A new baseball season is starting & hope springs eternal for Dodger fans everywhere. Firstly, let's give thanks for the return of our favorite Dodger, Vin Scully. I am thinking that he will be the Dodger MVP for 2011.

As of the date of this post we are 6-6 which is an improvement over our spring at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. By the way, it is a beautiful facility & everyone should try and get over there during Spring Training.

Where to start - how about the starting pitching. It's a bit of a mixed bag: Clayton Kershaw has been wonderful and is clearly the leader of the staff (dare we say that he has been Koufaxesque); Chad Billingsley is coming along, still seems fragile when things get tough but he is more than capable & potentially All Star material; Ted Lilly ... he's our #3 but would probably be a #5 on most staffs - hopefully he will be an inning eater and end up with a .500 won-loss record (that's the upside unfortunately); Hiroki Kuroda is off to a good start at 2-0 - if he holds up physically he will be the key to this year's success as I don't think many people are expecting much from him (I actually think he will be a 15 game winner & solid all year); as for our #5 we are awaiting the return of Jon Garland from an oblique injury & I think he will one of the better #5 starters in the league - however, until his return it is a mixed bag with John Ely currently filling the role poorly.

The bullpen is an almost entire make over - there is still Kuo & Broxton for the 8th & 9th with Kuo looking as excellent as ever (still worries as to health & longevity) but Brox looking really shaky with 2 HRs given up in his early appearances even though he has converted every one of his save opportunities. The rest of these guys are newcomers except for Kenley Jansen (even he was a late season call up last year) & none of them can be described as anything more than journeymen work horses but I am prepared to be surprised as they have done a good job so far.

The starting line up doesn't cause much fear in the hearts of the competition in the National League. The outfield has Andre Ethier in right (he is a good player - All Star quality); Matt Kemp is center (off to a great start - MVP potential so my fingers are crossed); left is a platoon effort manned primarily by Tony Gwynn (the son of the HOF'er) who is off to a pretty good start & is largely responsible for 2 wins in San Diego last week end and Marcus Thames who is looking OK (not great mind you) with adequate defense, good power & .270 potential average.

The infield has become a problem - health issues have affected third baseman Casey Blake since the middle of Spring Training & (at his age) will plague him all season as we watch his production decrease; ss Raphael Furcal (also no spring chicken) is already on the DL with a wrist issue & a broken thumb that should place him on the shelf for 4 to 6 weeks; projected starting second baseman Juan Uribe is a good serviceable player (not a star for sure) and now we are asking a lot of him offensively and defensively as he tries to cover third base & shortstop as well; I love love love Jamie Carroll as a utility player but now he is being called upon to be a starter for an extended period of time & that should expose his shortcomings; Aaron Miles is also in the mix as a part time player who also may end up playing more than expected; Ivan De Jesus had a good spring & was given the chance to start the season with the big club but faltered badly - he is back up with the injury to Furcal so let's hope he performs at a major league level; first base is unexpectedly becoming an issue - after a great 1st half of 2010 James Loney has faltered greatly; his 2nd half was dramatically sub par and his start to 2011 has been atrocious (he is starting to look like a re-run of Russell Martin).

Behind the plate we have Rod Barajas as the starter - he is solid receiver and should hit 15 to 20 HR's,have a .250 to .270 average and drive in 70 runs; not an All Star but a reliable player. He is being backed up by A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez both of whom have proven themselves in the minors but are question marks at this level.

All in all it looks like a 3rd place finish in the NL West behind my projected winner Colorado Rockies and last year's World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. We will be in a dog fight with the Arizona D'Backs for 3rd and I am afraid that the San Diego Padres will be at our heels all season.

Unfortunately, if I am wrong it is more likely that I have been overly optimistic rather than pessimistic - in other words we are more likely to end up 5th than 1st.