Stretch Run 2009

The Dodgers have been in neutral for the past 50 games with a record barely over .500. They cling to a 4 game lead over Colorado with 33 games remaining. They also have a very favorable schedule for the remainder of the season with the vast majority of their games against teams with a record below .500. However, there are reasons to be concerned.



Pitching is thin -



Starters: Kurota still has not returned from his concussion suffered from a line drive back through the box & even upon his return one must wonder whether he will be the same; Billingsley has struggled significantly since the All Star break and was very unimpressive last night in the loss to the Reds; newcomers Haeger &Padilla have only had 2 & 1 starts respectively and the jury is still out on them; this leaves Wolf & Kershaw as the only settled members at this point and neither of them can be counted on as the staff ace at this point in their careers - Wolf while pitching very well has never been an ace and Kershaw is still only 21 and can be very inconsistent; Weaver has filled in admirably when called upon but clearly his best days are behind him and wouldn't be expected to start in any prospective play off series.



Relievers: for the most part they have been the team's salvation this season; they have been overworked as the starters haven't consistently gone deep into games at all; Troncoso & Belisario are showing signs of wear & tear; Mota started poorly & then had a long very good stretch but lately has not been nearly as effective; Kuo when healthy has been excellent but the concern is that his next appearance could be his last & Torre is forced to be very careful with his work load; McDonald has a bright future but right now he is unpredictable when called upon; Weaver has been a reliable long man and spot starter but in the playoffs you hope to not need a long man & clearly you are going with your top 3 starters; Broxton was lights out until the All Star break & was named a member of the NL All Star squad, he has had problems with the big toe on his push off foot and lately has been less than impressive blowing several saves & incurring his 1st loss; newly acquired Sherrill has been great allowing no runs in his initial 13 appearance for the Dodgers & even supplanting Broxton as the closer in a big game against the Cubs last week.



In summary I don't think we have enough pitching to go all the way but we have got to compete with what we have - a turnaround in September by some of the big guns like Billingsley & Broxton would surely help and a healthy return by Kuroda shoud get us to the NL West title.



Starting line up:



Furcal has not been himself all year & reports are that it is starting to get to him; he has sulked a little bit and is clearly pressing. Both at the plate and in the field he has not been the Furcal the Dodgers enjoyed before his back injury last season.



Hudson has been a nice surprise; he is very steady in the field, was very hot early at the plate (although he has cooled off dramatically since the All Star break). His attitude really seems to benefit the team and, provided he can still be productive at the plate, we should look forward to him helping in the run for the pennant.



Ethier has been the team MVP so far this year; career high in HR's decent average, steady fielding and great clutch hitting. If he can keep it up through the end of the season we stand a chance to go all the way.



Ramirez.... great start followed by a 50 game suspension and very mediocre since his return; a liability in the field and a bust in all of the clutch situations lately. Season highlight was his pinch hit HR on his bobble head night. However, other than that it has been disappointment after disappointment at crucial times.



Blake has been the model of consistency and professionalism all season and ever since his acquisition from Cleveland last year. He has done everything asked of him, fielding great, hitting consistently, good power, great leadership - no problems here except he is getting older and may not be around many more seasons.



Loney has good but not great statistics and he hasn't played as well as the statistics indicate. Very little power for a corner infielder, inconsistent production although he has over 70 RBI's , streaky at the plate & his fielding has suffered. He seems to have not handled the trade rumors from the end of July very well and needs to shake out of his funk for the Dodgers to succeed.



Martin has been perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season. He has never got it going offensively with only 4 HR's to this point and all of them since the All Star break. His average has struggled to stay above .250 and he has failed in the clutch every time except once all season. His sole highlight was a recent grand slam against the Cubs.



Kemp has been the success story of the season. He is starting to blossom into a super star both at the plate and in the field. Hitting over .300 all season, very good power & production, stealing bases and a highlight reel on defense. The best part is he is going to get even better - he is going to be a joy to watch the next few seasons.



Bench: Loretta has been an asset with clutch pinch hitting and good production in his spot starts at 3rd & 1st; Ausmus has been very good, hitting very well with an average over .300, great defense and a calming influence on the staff; Castro has been very good off the bench, solid and at time spectacular defense & better offense than expected; and, lastly, maybe the co-MVP of the team Juan Pierre ... when Ramirez was suspended Pierre saved the season: hitting well over .300, fielding flawlessly and providing an extra offensive dimension with his speed; before & since Ramirez's suspension he has been solid every time called upon & has been no problem in the clubhouse. Pierre has been a real Pro & a great ballplayer.



Prediction:



The Dodgers should win the NL West Division despite themselves; the remaining schedule is relatively weak, they have a 4 game lead with 33 to go, the Rockies have had their run (it seems), the Giants are even further back (6 games); however, it could get very interesting as the Dodgers have a propensity to beat themselves and play down to their competition.



The Playoffs are going to be a different matter altogether. Both the Phillies and Cardinals are very good, solid teams with good playoff style pitching. The Dodgers lack a dominant #1 starter and right now their best (Wolf) is more like a #3 starter on most teams. We will not match up well and will rely too much on our offense; recent history shows that the Dodger offense is very spotty especially with the lack of production from Ramirez.



At this point, with September still to come, I predict that the Dodgers are eliminated in 4 games in the 1st round of the Playoffs no matter who they face between the Phils & Cards.