Dodgers 2011 Recap Part 1

On April 14, 2011 I composed my thoughts and predictions for the 2011 edition of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The season is now complete and it is time to re-visit those thoughts and determine if there was any validity to those observations.

First and foremost we were privileged to have Vin Scully for the entire season and he has announced his return for 2012. He is truly a national treasure. We should be thankful for each and every broadcast where we are blessed with his presence, knowledge and soothing words.

In early April I dared to describe Clayton Kershaw as "Koufaxesque". This is a tremendous burden to place on any current major league pitcher much less a 23 year old just starting his career. Nevertheless, for the 2012 season at least, Kershaw met those lofty expectations. He started strong, stayed consistent and ended up as the favorite for the National League Cy Young award. Commentators throughout baseball marvelled at his skills and have been promoting him as the best pitcher in the league and possibly in the MLB. He finished as the Dodgers first 20 game winner since Ramon Martinez in 1990. He won the National League "Triple Crown" for pitchers as he tied for the league lead in wins (21-5, led in strike outs (248) and ERA (2.28). For some perspective: he is the youngest major league 20 game winner since Dwight Gooden in 1985, the youngest Dodger 20 game winner since Ralph Branca in 1947 and .... wait for it .... the first Dodger to win the pitching Triple Crown since (you guessed it) Sandy Koufax in 1966.

The balance of the pitching staff as compared to my predictions panned out as follows: Chad Billingsley - I called him fragile in the clutch with potential All Star ability. He ended an up and down season 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA with some very good outings and some very bad performances as well. This season's statistics are very much in line with a typical year for Chad and I suspect is pretty much in line with what can be expected of him for the balance of his career. Ted Lilly - I described him as our #3 but a #5 on most major league staffs that can be an inning eater with success defined as a .500 record. Ted ended up 12-14 with a 3.97 ERA in 192.2 innings - pretty much as predicted. Hiroki Kuroda - I stated that I liked what I saw with this guy and thought he was capable of winning 15 games. Kuroda ended up 13-16 but had a sparkling 3.07 ERA as he took on the role of the hard luck guy in the rotation. He received very limited run support throughout the year but ended extremely well going 6-2 from the middle of August through the end of the season. It must also be noted that as the end of August trading deadline approached there was considerable interest throughout baseball in acquiring his services for the stretch run. Hiroki had his choice of destinations and true to his heritage he wanted to stay in LA and finish the year with his teammates. This loyalty was great to see and here's hoping the Dodgers bring him back next year. It is felt that he may want to return home to Japan but it would be a privilege for him to return for another year in Dodger Blue.

Jon Garland & John Ely: Neither of these guys panned out at all. Garland sustained an oblique injury early in the season after posting a 1-5 record and never returned. Ely spent most of the year in AAA, was called up in September but made only 5 appearances going 1-0. Therefore my prediction for these guys could at best be characterized as an "incomplete".

Nevertheless the rotation was manned by some surprises throughout the year. Through the end of July we were pleased with the performance of Rubby De La Rosa, a flame throwing 22 year old that was very impressive despite a won/loss record of only 4-5 as he averaged a strike out per inning for the season. However, he experienced arm trouble and was shut down for medical procedures that hopefully will allow him to return by Spring of 2012. Next in line was 21 year old Nathan Eovaldi filling in after De La Rosa's injury - despite a 1-2 record he was very impressive in his 6 starts and over that period maintained a 3.09 ERA before heading to the Pen for precautionary reasons. The last 5 starts for the #5 spot in the rotation came from crafty 28 year old Dana Eveland who also impressed with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.03. I am predicting a very spirited competition for spots in the rotation amongst these three guys and we would be happy to have any of them starting games for the Boys in Blue.

The Pen was described as an entire make over except for the presence of Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo. I described these two guys as looking as excellent as ever - I was dead wrong. Kuo struggled all year, went on the disabled list with an anxiety disorder and went 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA - not even close to the All Star performance of 2010 and now a major question mark going forward. Broxton was ineffective, inconsistent and untrustworthy until going on the disabled list in May with elbow problems. He never returned to improve upon his 1-2 record with an ERA of 5.68 despite converting 7 of 8 save opportunities. At this point with his contract up it is uncertain if he will be asked back by the Dodgers for 2012. Without these guys performing at their previous All-Star levels the Pen was in deep trouble and was terrible right through the end of June.

Slowly but surely the Pen started to right itself and after the All Star break it was strong enough to help the team to 41-28 record and 26-12 from the middle of August to the end of the season. Leading the way was our rookie 26 year old closer Javy Guerra: I dare say that in the Spring he was not on any one's radar and yet he performed fantastic with a 2-2 record 2.31 ERA and 21 saves in 23 opportunities. It was a joy to watch his confidence grow as the season progressed and now we are counting on more for next season. We were further blessed with the growth and development of Scott Elbert as he evolved into a very reliable left handed arm and set up guy. His record was 0-1 but his ERA was an impressive 2.43 and he converted both of his save opportunities. I identified all but one of the remaining members of the Pen as journeymen but as the season went on I got to know them as they completed their roles in a workmanlike fashion. Matt Guerrier, Blake Hawksworth, Mike MacDougall and Josh Lindblum all acquitted themselves well and are worthy of the label "major leaguers".

There was one member of the Pen that not only impressed but provided a glimpse of someone that may some day be a Hall of Famer. He was described as having better stuff that Mariano Rivera. High praise as Rivera became the all time career saves leader by the end of the season with the Yankees. The guy I am promoting to such a lofty status is Kenley Jansen. The 24 year old converted catcher kept getting better and better throughout the season. The only thing that could stop him was a heart condition that placed him on the disabled list from the end of July through the end of August. I made special mention of Kenley in the Spring report but I didn't do him justice. He made 51 appearances in the season allowing 17 earned runs but 9 of those came in 2 April appearances - 4 on opening day to the Giants and 5 on April 19th to the Braves. A mediocre May followed and his ERA stood at 6.43 at that point in the season. From that moment until the end of the season Kenley allowed only 2 earned runs in 32.2 innings over 31 appearances. But wait it gets even better: he struck out 61 over that span and 96 for the season. This included 32 over a span of 13 innings in 13 appearances in September - that means that of the 39 outs he recorded 32 were by strike out. He ended the season with a major league best of 16.1 K's per nine inning ratio and a remarkable 20.6 per 9 innings for the month of September. The 16.1 rate set a new major league record and there is a buzz out there regarding our Kenley Jansen. Barring injury we could be watching the birth and growth of an all time great.

to be continued - Part 2 containing the starting line up, bench, coaching staff and Hot Stove comments coming up in the next post.

End of an Era

We are watching the end of an era with the dismantling of the Lakers today in Dallas. The Mavericks have swept the Lakers out of the 2011 playoffs and we are saying so long to Phil Jackson as our coach. Already the networks are speculating about his replacement.

A new coach should result in some personnel changes. Kobe Bryant will be back, of course, and he should be a star player for a few more years. I suspect that he will be picking his spots a little more carefully as he seems unable to sustain his normal high level of excellence for a full season plus playoffs. Pau Gasol has transformed from the most athletic big man in the NBA to a liability in this playoff season. Derek Fisher has shown that he can't handle the top level point guards in the league and may have to be considered a spot player next season. Ron Artest is a serviceable player but unreliable and unstable at times. Andrew Bynum is a star in the making & could be a dominant player as he develops. Lamar Odom is a keeper and an asset going forward.

The bench is fine; Shannon Brown probably needs to be considered as a starter next season and the rest fulfill their roles just fine. We have probably seen the last of Luke Walton unless a new coach sees an expanded role for him on this team.

The Lakers need to be at a Championship level. They were there until the last 10 games of the season and throughout the playoffs. They were the best team in the NBA for the 20 games following the All Star break. Yet, they collapsed. Was it age? Was it team chemistry? Are there trust issues as expressed by Drew?

The choice of Phil's replacement will give us some idea of where the franchise will be going as it starts a new post-Jackson era.

Did the Lakers quit? Are the Mavericks that much better than the Lakers?

This off season will have many questions and we hope that Mitch Kupchak has the answers. Los Angeles needs a boost - the Dodgers are in a down turn; the Kings continue to disappoint; UCLA football & basketball is middle of the road or worse; and, USC football is a long way from where it once was during their championship runs. The Angels are re-built and competing for a division title at this point in the season. They look like they are for real and may be the only team in the area that has a reasonable chance of on-field success.

The swift fall of the Lakers this season was unexpected and very disappointing. Optimism may be a rare commodity in Southern California sports for the next while.

Dodgers 2011

A new baseball season is starting & hope springs eternal for Dodger fans everywhere. Firstly, let's give thanks for the return of our favorite Dodger, Vin Scully. I am thinking that he will be the Dodger MVP for 2011.

As of the date of this post we are 6-6 which is an improvement over our spring at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. By the way, it is a beautiful facility & everyone should try and get over there during Spring Training.

Where to start - how about the starting pitching. It's a bit of a mixed bag: Clayton Kershaw has been wonderful and is clearly the leader of the staff (dare we say that he has been Koufaxesque); Chad Billingsley is coming along, still seems fragile when things get tough but he is more than capable & potentially All Star material; Ted Lilly ... he's our #3 but would probably be a #5 on most staffs - hopefully he will be an inning eater and end up with a .500 won-loss record (that's the upside unfortunately); Hiroki Kuroda is off to a good start at 2-0 - if he holds up physically he will be the key to this year's success as I don't think many people are expecting much from him (I actually think he will be a 15 game winner & solid all year); as for our #5 we are awaiting the return of Jon Garland from an oblique injury & I think he will one of the better #5 starters in the league - however, until his return it is a mixed bag with John Ely currently filling the role poorly.

The bullpen is an almost entire make over - there is still Kuo & Broxton for the 8th & 9th with Kuo looking as excellent as ever (still worries as to health & longevity) but Brox looking really shaky with 2 HRs given up in his early appearances even though he has converted every one of his save opportunities. The rest of these guys are newcomers except for Kenley Jansen (even he was a late season call up last year) & none of them can be described as anything more than journeymen work horses but I am prepared to be surprised as they have done a good job so far.

The starting line up doesn't cause much fear in the hearts of the competition in the National League. The outfield has Andre Ethier in right (he is a good player - All Star quality); Matt Kemp is center (off to a great start - MVP potential so my fingers are crossed); left is a platoon effort manned primarily by Tony Gwynn (the son of the HOF'er) who is off to a pretty good start & is largely responsible for 2 wins in San Diego last week end and Marcus Thames who is looking OK (not great mind you) with adequate defense, good power & .270 potential average.

The infield has become a problem - health issues have affected third baseman Casey Blake since the middle of Spring Training & (at his age) will plague him all season as we watch his production decrease; ss Raphael Furcal (also no spring chicken) is already on the DL with a wrist issue & a broken thumb that should place him on the shelf for 4 to 6 weeks; projected starting second baseman Juan Uribe is a good serviceable player (not a star for sure) and now we are asking a lot of him offensively and defensively as he tries to cover third base & shortstop as well; I love love love Jamie Carroll as a utility player but now he is being called upon to be a starter for an extended period of time & that should expose his shortcomings; Aaron Miles is also in the mix as a part time player who also may end up playing more than expected; Ivan De Jesus had a good spring & was given the chance to start the season with the big club but faltered badly - he is back up with the injury to Furcal so let's hope he performs at a major league level; first base is unexpectedly becoming an issue - after a great 1st half of 2010 James Loney has faltered greatly; his 2nd half was dramatically sub par and his start to 2011 has been atrocious (he is starting to look like a re-run of Russell Martin).

Behind the plate we have Rod Barajas as the starter - he is solid receiver and should hit 15 to 20 HR's,have a .250 to .270 average and drive in 70 runs; not an All Star but a reliable player. He is being backed up by A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez both of whom have proven themselves in the minors but are question marks at this level.

All in all it looks like a 3rd place finish in the NL West behind my projected winner Colorado Rockies and last year's World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. We will be in a dog fight with the Arizona D'Backs for 3rd and I am afraid that the San Diego Padres will be at our heels all season.

Unfortunately, if I am wrong it is more likely that I have been overly optimistic rather than pessimistic - in other words we are more likely to end up 5th than 1st.